BNA Wealth: Monthly Market Update – Period Ending July 31, 2025

The Federal Reserve made it clear that rate cuts are not part of its summer vacation plans. Here’s your lighthearted, yet informed breakdown of what happened and what’s next.

Markets stayed in rally mode through July, except the Dow Jones, which apparently decided to take a summer vacation.

• S&P 500: Up 3.25% 
• NASDAQ: Up 4.03%
• Dow Jones: Up .91%

The Fed kept rates at 4.25-4.50, marking exactly one year of telling us,  “We’re watching inflation… but not ready to cut.”  Basically, they’re the financial equivalent of someone saying they’re just about to leave the party, but still grabbing snacks an hour later.

Markets had been hoping for a few cuts by now, but July inflation data showed that prices, especially in services and housing are still sticking around like glitter after a birthday party.

The yield curve is still inverted, which in economic terms is a bit like walking backward to your destination because it “feels right.”

• 2-year Treasury: 3.91%
• 10-year Treasury: 4.40%

Translation: Investors still think the Fed will eventually cut, but they’ve stopped holding their breath.

• Credit card balances are up, and delinquencies are rising a bit, like forgetting that 0% APR ends after 12 months.
• Mortgage rates remain close to 7%, so the housing market is essentially a freeze-frame from last year.
• Retail sales are softening. Even Amazon needs a coupon code now.
  

What to Watch in August (Other Than Vacation Deals)

• Inflation reports (CPI & PCE):  The Fed reads these like tea leaves. 
• Jackson Hole Fed Meeting (Aug 22–24):  A Wyoming getaway where central bankers definitely don’t gossip and maybe drop policy clues.
• Earnings season wrap-up:  Can companies keep squeezing profits without raising prices? We’re about to find out.
  

Final Thought: Don’t Fight the Fed, Or Your Financial Plan

The Fed may still be in “wait and see” mode, but that doesn’t mean you should be. Markets may bounce, wobble, or shimmy, but if you’re well-diversified, long-term focused, and not panic-Googling ‘How to become a day trader’, you’re doing it right.

Stick to the plan. Ignore the noise and talk to your BNA Wealth Advisor with questions or concerns.