BNA Wealth: Monthly Market Update – October 2025

Steady Progress Amid Uncertainty

Gavin Gochnour, CFP® — BNA Wealth Advisor

Market Summary

October brought a mix of encouraging economic data, cautious optimism from the Federal Reserve, and the return of some familiar headlines from Washington. Despite the noise, markets continued to show resilience and steady performance throughout the month.

S&P500: +2.27%
NASDAQ: +4.7%
Dow Jones: +2.51%

The Fed’s October Meeting

The Federal Reserve met expectations and cut interest rates again on October 29th, lowering the target range by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00% — the lowest level in three years and the second cut of 2025.

During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is “not a foregone conclusion — far from it.”

Markets reacted with some hesitation, as investors had hoped for a clearer signal about future cuts. Stocks were mostly flat following the announcement, and bond yields edged slightly higher as investors adjusted expectations.

The Government Shutdown

As I’m sure you may have heard, the government entered a shutdown on October 1st, due to disagreements over federal spending. While the headlines are serious, history shows that markets typically remain unphased by government shutdowns.

Looking back at the four U.S. government shutdowns lasting five days or more, the market ended with gains three times and was flat once — never posting a meaningful loss. In fact, since this shutdown began, stocks have moved higher with the S&P500 up 2.27%. Reinforcing a familiar lesson: while political headlines can create short-term noise, staying invested through uncertainty has consistently rewarded patient investors over time.

(If you’d like to review the previous government shutdown returns, you can click the link here.)

Geopolitics

U.S.–China trade talks are back in focus as President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30th , in South Korea. President Trump described the meeting as “amazing,” noting that China will resume purchasing U.S. soybeans and lift restrictions on rare earth exports, while the U.S. will begin easing tariffs on Chinese goods.

These talks provided a modest boost to markets and global trade sentiment, reducing some immediate risks of escalation. However, since many of the deeper trade discussions remain unresolved, investors should still expect ongoing negotiations and occasional volatility.

Final Thought: Stay the Course, Even if the Fed Changes Theirs

The Fed may be easing up, but your financial plan shouldn’t. Markets can move quickly and react to every headline, but your long-term plan is designed to weather short-term uncertainty. Stay diversified, stay patient, and remember — successful investing is about time in the market, not timing the market.

As always, reach out to your BNA Wealth Advisor with any questions or if you’d like to review your portfolio before year-end.

Contact BNA Today

If you’re a business owner looking for reliable financial guidance, we’re just a call away. Reach out to us at (803) 366-8371 or email us at success@bna.com to see how we can support your goals.

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