BNA Wealth Market Perspective: August 2026

July Recap & August Outlook

July brought a mix of headlines — renewed tension in Iran, a tick up in inflation, and growing scrutiny of AI spending — and a notable transition at the Federal Reserve, as Kevin Warsh presided over his second meetings as Fed Chairman.

A New Fed Chair

Chairman Warsh brings a different style to the role than his recent predecessors, but it’s worth remembering that the Fed operates by committee: the Board of Governors votes on policy decisions like interest rate changes, and no single chair can act unilaterally. So far, the Fed has left rates unchanged.

Warsh does serve as the primary voice communicating Fed policy to the public, and his approach appears to echo the pre-financial-crisis Fed — holding cards closer to the chest. Investors may see less proactive signaling going forward, but we don’t see this appointment as a material shift away from the Fed’s long-term mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

AI Spending and Equity Markets

Strong earnings have carried equity markets for over a year, but July marked a shift. For the first time in a while, simply beating expectations wasn’t enough to satisfy investors. Concerns about the scale of AI-related capital spending weighed on tech stocks, which pulled back slightly for the month. Even so, tech remains solidly positive for the year. The market’s focus increasingly seems to be shifting from headline earnings to the relationship between capital expenditures and existing cash flow. This kind of scrutiny is a normal, healthy part of any investment cycle, and we continue to believe in the long-term profitability of the sector.

Iran, Oil Prices, and Inflation

Renewed conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, contributing to an uptick in inflation. Any rise in prices impacts us all, but we don’t believe we’re headed for extreme inflation like we saw in 2022 as a result of the Pandemic. The Fed continues to monitor inflation and is holding rates steady for now, but markets think there is a fair probability of a hike or two later this year.

Staying the Course

Months like July are a good reminder that volatility — whether driven by geopolitics, inflation data, or shifting sentiment around a single sector — is a normal part of investing, not a signal to dramatically change course. Markets have weathered periods like this before, and disciplined, long-term investors have historically been rewarded for looking past short-term noise.