BNA Market Perspective: September 2026

Strong Markets, New Questions

If August taught investors anything, it is that a strong market can still be an uncertain market. Stocks continued their impressive run during August, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 3%, the Dow rising about 2%, and the Nasdaq advancing more than 4%. The S&P 500 remains up more than 12% for the year, despite the significant amount of uncertainty investors have faced throughout 2026.

Much of the recent strength has been supported by corporate earnings and continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence. Second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies have been particularly strong, helping investors look beyond many of the economic and geopolitical concerns that dominated headlines earlier this year.

But as we enter September, there are some new questions for investors to consider.

The Fed Is Back in Focus

The Federal Reserve remains one of the biggest variables for the markets. At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains a concern and that the Federal Reserve is not finished addressing price pressures. His comments caused investors to reconsider expectations for interest rates, with the possibility of a September rate increase receiving more attention. The Fed’s next scheduled meeting is September 15–16.

The challenge for the Fed is that the economy is showing mixed signals. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% objective, while the labor market has shown signs of slowing. The August employment report will therefore be particularly important as policymakers attempt to balance inflation against economic growth and employment.

Oil and Geopolitical Risk Return

Just as investors appeared to be becoming more comfortable with geopolitical risks, tensions between the United States and Iran increased again at the end of August. Oil prices moved sharply higher, with Brent crude moving above $90 per barrel and U.S. crude approaching $86. Higher energy prices can be problematic because they can put upward pressure on inflation while simultaneously reducing consumers’ purchasing power.

This is a good reminder that markets don’t move in a straight line. A positive economic environment can quickly be challenged by an unexpected geopolitical event, a change in inflation expectations, or a shift in Federal Reserve policy.

So, What Should Investors Do?

For long-term investors, we believe the answer is not to react to every headline. Markets are currently near record levels, which can create an understandable temptation to become more conservative. However, trying to predict the next market correction—or the exact day to get back into the market—is extremely difficult.

Instead, this is a good time to ask a few simple questions:

• Is my portfolio still appropriate for my risk tolerance?
• Has my asset allocation drifted significantly from my target?
• Am I adequately diversified?
• Am I saving enough to reach my long-term goals?
• If the market declined 10%, 20%, or more, would I be comfortable staying invested?

These questions are more important than trying to predict what the market will do next month.

Stay Calm in the Uncertainty

There will always be something for investors to worry about. This year we have experienced changing expectations for interest rates, inflation concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, trade policy changes, and significant market movements. Yet through all of that, businesses have continued to grow earnings and investors who remained disciplined have participated in the market’s recovery and subsequent gains.

That doesn’t mean the market cannot decline. It can—and eventually will. It simply means that market volatility is a normal part of investing, not necessarily a reason to change a long-term investment strategy.

As we head into the fall, we believe investors should remain focused on what they can control: their savings rate, diversification, risk tolerance, time horizon, and overall financial plan. The goal isn’t to predict the market. The goal is to build a portfolio that allows you to stay invested when the market inevitably surprises us.

At BNA Wealth, we are always happy to review your portfolio, discuss your risk tolerance, financial plan and make sure your investment strategy remains aligned with your long-term goals.