BNA Wealth Market Report: June 2026

Markets Continue to Recover

The U.S. stock market has staged an impressive recovery this year. The S&P 500 is now up roughly 9% year-to-date after being down nearly 8% just two months ago. While the ceasefire with Iran helped calm investors and sparked the rebound, another round of consistently solid corporate earnings has also contributed to the sharp reversal.

Corporate profit margins are now near their highest levels in more than two decades, certainly in part due to efficiencies created by AI. At the same time, these efficiency gains have contributed to slower hiring trends, as companies are able to do more with fewer incremental workers.

Inflation and Energy Prices Remain in Focus

Looking ahead, we do not expect energy prices to decline rapidly and the supply disruptions have already caused an uptick in inflation. PCE inflation — which includes categories such as food, energy, housing, and healthcare — has risen from a low of 2.2% a year ago to approximately 3.8% today.

While no one can predict the outcome, we do not believe the economy is headed toward a repeat of the extreme inflationary environment experienced during COVID.

Staying Focused on the Long Term

Most economists continue to view recession risks as relatively low. However, investors should still expect periods of volatility as markets respond to ongoing geopolitical developments, inflation data, and central bank policy decisions.

Our advice is to ignore the short-term news headlines and to stay focused on a diversified long term investing approach.